The weekend. For many, the perfect time to relax after a long week. For some, the perfect time to sit back and wonder how everything that could go wrong through the week, did go wrong. Why they went wrong. And how they could have been avoided. Have you ever found yourself looking back at a decision you made that turned out to be wrong, wondering, “How on earth could I make such an obvious mistake?!” Of course you have. We all have. More times than we care to admit. Now, imagine someone putting together a list of all these mistakes, and explaining why in most cases, they are the result of a common, yet flawed way of thinking. That is exactly what Rolf Dobelli does in ‘The Art of Thinking Clearly’.
The Art of Thinking Clearly – Putting unrealized errors in plain sight
Consider a few scenarios. Have you invested your time – or money – into something that, looking back, wasn’t really worth it? Or rushed into doing something just because it worked for ‘someone you know’? How about continuing down a path that has in the past failed you, just because you have already invested your time into it, hoping that it will work out? Only to realise an obvious mistake, and ask yourself the elusive question, “What was I thinking?”
Perhaps the question to be answered here isn’t the ‘what’ you were thinking. Rather, it is ‘how’ you were thinking. We all like to believe that we know what we are doing. That every action we take, every conclusion we come to, every decision of ours, is based on sound facts, logic, and reason. But that isn’t always the case. Despite our efforts, our decisions are quite often the result of emotions and certain biases mixed with a bit of logic – which we again subconsciously tamper to suit our biases. We see that all around us as well. Immediately recognizing the flaw in someone else’s thinking. But somehow, not in our own.
It’s only when this imperfect reasoning turns to unwelcome results that our flaw becomes so obvious to us. The biases and incomplete facts that affected our decisions suddenly become apparent. And for a brief second, we might wonder, ‘If only there was a way to recognize these obvious biases. To think practically, more logically.’ And then you come across, ‘The Art of Thinking Clearly’. Rolf Dobelli’s book that summarizes the 99 biases that can easily affect our thinking. Biases that we have all, at some point, allowed to show up on our actions. Even if they seem quite obvious.
First. A word on ‘bias’
Broadly, when we think of the word ‘bias’, we immediately think of a strong feeling towards someone, or something. The more important aspect of a bias however, is that it isn’t just a strong feeling. But it is a feeling that easily clouds your judgment, irrespective of the facts. And that is what can make a big difference when it comes to making good decisions. To what extent do you let your bias affect your logic. The Art of Thinking Clearly takes you through not one, not two, not three, but 99 biases that affect our thinking, and thereby our decisions at various stages of our lives.
Easy to read. Easy to understand. And something for everyone.
99 chapters can sound like a lot. But it really isn’t. With each chapter dedicated to explaining one bias, citing examples that you can easily relate to, Rolf Dobelli talks through the 99 biases that lead to the most common errors in judgement that we all make. And we you can avoid falling into these traps.
The Art of Thinking Clearly isn’t simply a book on ‘how to avoid making mistakes’. With its easy approach towards explaining these biases, it is almost a book that in a way questions the human psychology. The human way of thinking, and how easily it can be influenced by irrelevant factors to make illogical decisions. As humans, we all have certain biases. They are of course different for each one of us. But they are nevertheless inherent within us. And despite our best efforts, these biases do find a way to creep into our thinking, reflecting on our decisions. Even if we don’t see it.
Fortunately, Rolf Dobelli does a little more than just highlight these biases, by outlining into tips, tricks, and ways in which you can overcome these biases. Which, like the rest of the book, are quite easy to understand. What can be difficult however, is to implement them. Even though this isn’t a book about changing behaviours, it advises us on cutting out our errors. But that requires something much more than just understanding. It requires us to almost go against our own feelings and emotions to take decisions in a more practical manner. And harsh as that might sound, isn’t that what the art of thinking clearly really is. Practical decisions, based on facts and not feelings.
Making the most of The Art of Thinking Clearly.
As humans, we are all affected by biases in some form or the other. That is a fact. Another fact however, is that as humans, each one of us is different. The set of biases that affects my thinking are probably not the same as the ones that affect yours. And that would make it impossible for me to suggest what parts or chapters of the book would be most relevant to you. Making the most of this book would depend less on your ability to read through understand the 99 biases it summarizes, and more on identifying the biases that most affect you and your thinking. That in itself would require a level of introspection on your part.
Taking that into account, here are a few biases from the book that struck close to my mind. And while these may or may not bring out the same response from you, they still give you an idea of what’s in store for you in The Art of Thinking Clearly.
- Survivorship Bias
‘Apple started off in a garage, and made it big. So why can’t I?’
True, Apple was started off in a garage by Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak. True, it made it big. But here’s another truth. There are thousands of other ventures that started off in garages that we have never heard of. Why? Because they never made it.
And the story of success is the one that we all want to hear. That is what the global media tells us. Victories are not only more celebrated, but are also more visible than failures. For every Apple that made it big, there are a thousand others who did not.
What we usually fall for, is the glamorous story of the survivor. Or the ‘Survivorship bias’ we need to guard ourselves from. Simply by taking a look at not just the winners, but also those who faltered, to avoid overestimating our chances of success. - The Sunk Cost Fallacy
‘I’ve already spent so many hours, so much money, and energy on this project. I can’t let it go now.’
While the courage to carry on despite challenges is admirable, sometimes you need to take a step back and ask yourself if what you are navigating are a few hurdles, or a dead end. It’s quite natural to be disappointed to see your time and money spent for naught. But that isn’t a reason for you to spend more time and money on what may be a lost cause. - Scarcity Error
Think about it. How often do you come across ads or product listings or offers that hint at a limited availability? Offer ends soon? Only three in stock?
And how often would you say such messages affect your decision to buy a product? Or at the least, get you thinking about it?
That is the ‘Scarcity Error’ in play. The illusion created in your minds by marketers and sellers that if it is rare, it must be valuable.
Think about the One Plus phone launch all those years ago. The idea of getting an exclusive invite to buy a phone was what made it the talk of the town. Even the people who didn’t need or want to buy a new phone, wanted an invite. Because it was that rare. And in their minds, it was that valuable.
That’s why limited edition products sell for twice as much as normal products offering the same features from the same maker. Because we believe that rare must be valuable. - Paradox of Choice
Netflix. Perhaps that is the easiest way to understand this. With its abundance of choices, we tend to spend as much time in finding something as we do in actually watching it.
But that isn’t a purely Netflix thing. Whether you are out shopping, looking for deals, closing on an insurance plan, or presenting ideas to your client, more often than not, ‘less is more’. That doesn’t mean you don’t look at options. But the number of options needs to have a limit. A large selection to choose from can often result in poorer decisions, and eventually, discontent.
Instead, have a limited number of options that you evaluate well. And think about what you really want before you choose. - Social Loafing
The idea that two individuals contributing towards a single job will double productivity and output does make complete sense in theory. Life, however, isn’t lived in theory. In reality, when two individuals are tasked to contribute towards the same task, it often leads to a decline in individual performances. People behave differently in groups than they do individually. And because an individual’s performance is now part of a group effort, this slack usually goes unnoticed. It is, simply put, a belief (sometimes subconsciously) that as long as it is unnoticed in the group effort, a little less effort on the part of an individual is acceptable.
Which is why small focussed teams often give out better results (in terms of individual contribution) than large ones. Because smaller teams make it possible to track any decline in individual efforts. - Information Bias
Is more information really good for better decisions? You would like to believe, it is. As would I. But shouldn’t that depend on what that information is, and more. Is this new piece of information relevant to your thought-process and decision? Is the information a fact, or an attempt to influence your decision? Does the source of the information seem reliable?
Quite often, we tend to simply absorb new information without really bothering to ask any of these questions. And that is when we find ourselves overloaded with information that leads to confusion rather than a decision.
“The greatest obstacle to discovery is not ignorance – it’s the illusion of knowledge.”
– Daniel Boorstin - Effort Justification
One of the first things I heard in my years in Business School, one that I have never forgotten was something a professor once said, “In Management, only results count. Efforts don’t.”
Now that is something a lot of people need to hear. As I did those years ago.
We have a natural tendency overvalue results when we put in more efforts towards it. But that value is only in our mind. Whether it is in our offices, our businesses, or our lives, this is something that we would be wise to remember. The value of what we deliver is, and must remain to a large extent, independent of the effort that goes into delivering it.
On the other hand however, Ikea, and other DIY brands use just this psychological trip to sell their products. By letting you build your products, they build a certain value of those products in your mind. Also known as, the Ikea effect.
The Last Word on The Art of Thinking Clearly
A key fundamental to our very existence today, like it has been for ages, thinking, is an art as much as anything else. An art to hone. But that’s easier said than done. The Art of Thinking is a book that aims to help you in that respect. It is a book that will have different takeaways for each of us. Because each of us think differently. Even when we think erroneously, we do it differently. But it is a book you need to read, and take away only what you need. It does as good a job as a holistic book as it does as a go-to guide whenever you need.
It doesn’t matter whether you work for a large corporate, run your own business, manage a team or anything else. This is a book for any person who thinks. And wants to think right. And anyone with important decisions to make. This is a book for anyone who wants to overcome their biases. More importantly, this is a book for anyone who isn’t aware of the biases that are affecting their decisions. This is a book that can change the way to think and let perceive things around you in a whole new light. Because at the end of the day, in the words of a good friend of mind, “We don’t know what we don’t know.”
